In-depth articles on India weather forecasts, monsoon science, NWP model methodology and how to make the most of VayuMet's data.
Real-feel temperatures reach 45.8°C in Yamunanagar (Haryana) and 45.6°C in Gurdaspur (Punjab) as monsoon humidity stacks on top of a likely heatwave — bone-dry and blistering in the west, thick and suffocating in the east. The actual monsoon trough and rain sit far away over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and the Northeast, leaving the northwest hot, humid, and dry of rain alerts entirely.
Madhya Pradesh's Ujjain district is under a RED alert for Extremely Heavy Rain today, the peak of a rain band that already dropped Heavy Rain on Mizoram (06 Aug) and Delhi-NCR/Haryana (08 Aug). The model shows this fading by 12 Aug, but the trough re-forms firmly along the Himalayan foothills by 15–19 Aug, driving Heavy to locally Very Heavy Rain (peaks up to 164 mm) over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and north Bengal, with Bihar joining late.
An Air India A320neo flying Phuket to Delhi lost and regained 425 feet of altitude in seconds at 36,000 ft over northern Madhya Pradesh on 4 August — an encounter that happened roughly 11 km above every rain gauge and weather station in India. The VayuMet cross-section along the track shows no clear-air turbulence signature at all, but cumulonimbus tops building to FL480, some 100 flight levels above the cruise altitude.
IMD forecast July at 94% of LPA; it verified at 101–104%, and the season is tracking 88% against a 90% call. So the forecast is not broken — but July was decided on a nine-day timescale by monsoon lows, and no ENSO index can speak to that. Why this is a monitoring problem, not a forecasting one.
After the 29–31 July depression drenched Gujarat, the monsoon trough is pivoting rapidly east. Bihar and eastern UP face Extremely Heavy Rain on 02 Aug, central UP plains on 03–04 Aug. A new Bay of Bengal disturbance is worth watching for the second week of August.
A well-marked depression (~994 hPa) over South Chhattisgarh at 29 Jul 1800 UTC is tracking westward toward the Gujarat coast. The P24P24 tendency shows pressure already falling −4 to −6 hPa over Gujarat and Maharashtra. The offshore trough re-activating off South Gujarat is the same zone that produced the 1,064 mm Valsad event on 22–23 July. Analysis with 4-panel chart and Valsad comparison.
A storm you see three days out is a reroute; the one you don't is an emergency. Weather is an operational input, not a backdrop — the same early, accurate hazard picture keeps flights safe and cuts cost. Includes what the VayuMet Aviation Weather Dashboard provides for India and South Asia: a 10-day SigWx forecast (cumulonimbus, severe icing, jet stream, turbulence by flight level) plus live METAR, TAF and SIGMET.
Umbergaon (Valsad) logged ~1,064 mm in 24 hours — India's third-highest daily total on record. VayuMet decodes the drivers on annotated GFS 00 & 12 UTC charts: a well-marked low, a mid-level cyclonic circulation, deep ascent, and upper-level divergence that aligned vertically over Valsad by 23 July — with a surging Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet and near-zero steering locking the rain machine over one coastal belt for 36 hours.
An active monsoon low over northwest India is pulling a strongly enhanced Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet (+4 to +6 m/s above normal). Gujarat under Very Heavy Rain — The Dangs and Vadodara on 22 July; Banas Kantha and Patan on 23 July. Rainfall axis shifts east from 27 July: UP plains, West Bengal, and Odisha activating. No break monsoon signal through 31 July.
The break monsoon episode active since 11 July is in its final stage. A low-pressure area is developing over the north Bay of Bengal around 19–20 July, with Very Heavy Rain alerts for Bihar and Jharkhand. Near-nationwide active monsoon is likely 22–26 July as the Gangetic plains and central India revive.
All five VayuMet model diagnostics confirm a break monsoon episode for 11–15 July — trough at the Himalayan foothills, central India dry, northwest India under severe heat (+8 to +14°C above normal). A fresh low-pressure area is likely over the Bay of Bengal 16–20 July, bringing monsoon revival for eastern India.
The 07 July VayuMet model run shows multi-variable confirmation of a break monsoon signal — MSLP trough, precipitation anomaly, 850 hPa wind, Tropical Easterly Jet, and temperature all pointing to a Weak to Break Monsoon episode from around 12 July. Active monsoon persists over Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Very Heavy Rain alerts for MP Malwa plateau (08–09 Jul) and Rajasthan Jhalawar (08–09 Jul).
A well-organised low-pressure system over the Odisha coast shows gust winds of 55–67 km/h — consistent with Depression-strength criteria. IMD declared the Delhi monsoon onset on 02 July, three days ahead of the VayuMet model's first indicated date (05 July); all classical criteria (rain + wind + temperature) align simultaneously only on 07 July. Mumbai, Palghar, Raigarh and Thane face very heavy to extremely heavy rain today. Gujarat coast (Surat, Navsari, Valsad) and Maharashtra Vidarbha active 06–07 July.
GFS 01 July 00Z confirms the Low Pressure Area is active today. Depression track refined slightly southward — core rainfall targets Odisha and Chhattisgarh 06 July. New detail: Gujarat coast (Narmada, Surat, Bharuch) flagged for very heavy rain 05 July. Rajasthan early signal 03 July. Tropical Easterly Jet at seasonal peak. Monsoon reached most of Central India and Uttarakhand as of 30 June.
GFS 28 June 00Z sharpens the Low Pressure Area signal from the 24 June run into a coherent Monsoon Depression track — NW Bay to Madhya Pradesh by 04–05 July. Extremely heavy rain alerts for Aravalli and Dungarpur on 04 July; Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Palghar on 07 July. Tropical Easterly Jet at strongest anomaly of the season. Monsoon to cover most of India except extreme Northwest by 05 July.
Monsoon enters remaining Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat on 24 June. West Coast rain remains below Long Term Mean through 28 June — the low-level jet is still short of Gujarat. A Low Pressure Area developing over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around 01–02 July drives easterlies over Bihar–East Uttar Pradesh and a heavy rain episode over Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. New 200 hPa Tropical Easterly Jet analysis added — strengthening Trivandrum–Madagascar corridor is a bullish signal for sustained active monsoon into early July.
Arabian Sea anticyclonic disruption is weakening — southwesterly jet reorganising for a West Coast push around 20–22 June. Bay of Bengal remains vigorous. This update adds 2 m temperature and MSLP analysis alongside rainfall and 850 hPa wind, showing monsoon cooling across the declared belt and a deepening trough over northwest India.
A strong negative wind anomaly and anticyclonic disruption over the Arabian Sea is stalling monsoon's West Coast advance through ~16 June. The Bay of Bengal branch remains vigorous — heavy to extremely heavy rainfall expected over Northeast India, peaking 17–19 June. VayuMet GFS 10-day sub-seasonal analysis with rainfall and 850 hPa wind anomaly maps vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean.
IMD officially declared Kerala monsoon onset on 4 June — nine days after its April forecast of 26 May. Widespread heavy rainfall (Thiruvananthapuram 63 mm, Alappuzha 59 mm) confirmed all three onset criteria. CFSv2 JJAS May vs June Initial Conditions comparison shows a near-universal downgrade across South Peninsular, Central, and East & NE India for the full season, with NW hills the only exception.
IMD forecasts 92% of LPA — India's first below-normal monsoon since 2023. El Niño developing with 82–98% probability across all major agencies. VayuMet CFSv2 analysis reveals severe deficits across northwest and central India Jun–Aug; September outlook carries the widest uncertainty at this lead time. Comparative assessment of IMD, ECMWF SEAS5, NOAA/CPC, WMO/SASCOF-34, JMA and UK Met Office.
A powerful heat wave is gripping Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, UP and Bihar with temperatures 6–9°C above normal. Fazilka (Punjab) forecast to touch 48.7°C on 29 May — the peak day. A line of severe thunderstorms sweeping across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and UP on 30 May is expected to bring dramatic relief, with convective gusts up to 95 km/h over Gurdaspur.
When will the monsoon arrive in your state? Historical onset climatology compared against the 2026 CFSv2 seasonal outlook, with a state-by-state onset date table and tips for tracking on VayuMet.
The GFS model is the backbone of VayuMet's short-range forecasts. This article explains how GFS works for the Indian subcontinent, where it excels, and where you should treat its output with caution.