India Monsoon 28 June 2026 — Sub-seasonal Update: Low Pressure Area Northwest Bay 01 July, First Monsoon Depression Expected 04–05 July, Widespread Heavy Rain 03–07 July
The 24 June analysis flagged a Low Pressure Area (LPA) developing over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around 01–02 July. The Global Forecast System (GFS) 28 June 00Z run confirms and sharpens that signal significantly — the system now shows signs of concentrating into the season's first Monsoon Depression around 04–05 July and tracking inland toward Madhya Pradesh. All five analysis fields — Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), precipitation, temperature, and winds at 850 hPa and 200 hPa — are in coherent agreement. The 03–07 July window carries the strongest and most widespread heavy-rain signal of the season so far, with district-level alerts turning red over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Konkan and the West Coast.
Low Pressure Area / Depression
Heavy Rain Episode
Monsoon Advance
IMD Monsoon Status — 28 June 2026
As of 27 June, IMD places the Monsoon Northern Limit (MNL) along 20°N/60°E – Surat – Indore – Mandla – Daltonganj – Motihari – 28.3°N/83°E. IMD forecasts conditions favourable for further advance into more parts of North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, remaining Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next 3–4 days. An upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar coast is the precursor to the Low Pressure Area indicated in the GFS charts. Heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings are in force for Northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
VayuMet-GFS Sub-seasonal Analysis — 28 June 2026 00Z
GFS IC: 28 June 2026 00 UTC. Period one: 28 June–2 July · Period two: 3–7 July. Anomalies vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean (MSLP vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2).
Fig. 1 — Mean Sea Level Pressure (top) · MSLP Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 28 June–2 July left · 3–7 July right · GFS IC: 28 Jun 2026 00 UTC
MSLP — Low Pressure Area Northwest Bay 01 July; Depression Inland over Madhya Pradesh 04–05 July
The 28 June–2 July anomaly (bottom-left) shows a strong negative MSLP anomaly centred over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and the Odisha coast — the deepening Low Pressure Area around 01 July. By 3–7 July (bottom-right) this anomaly has intensified and shifted inland, with a deep negative centre of −8 to −12 hPa now located over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha — the signature of an organised Monsoon Depression tracking west-northwestward. The trough simultaneously deepens over Rajasthan, pulling the monsoon advance rapidly northward.
Fig. 2 — Cumulated Rainfall (top) · Rain Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean (bottom) · 28 June–2 July left · 3–7 July right · GFS IC: 28 Jun 2026 00 UTC
Precipitation — Transition 28 June–2 July; Major Multi-day Heavy Rain Episode 3–7 July
Rainfall from 28 June–2 July (top-left) is active over the West Coast and Northeast India but the anomaly (bottom-left) remains largely near-normal over the interior — this is the pre-depression transition phase. The contrast in 3–7 July is dramatic: a very large positive anomaly — well above 150 mm over Long Term Mean — blankets Central India, the Konkan–Goa coast, Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and the Uttarakhand Himalayan foothills. This is the Depression's rainfall footprint combined with an energised monsoon trough and a surging Arabian Sea low-level jet. The widest and heaviest rainfall signal of the season.
Fig. 3 — Mean 2 m Temperature (top) · Temperature Anomaly vs June Long Term Mean (bottom) · 28 June–2 July left · 3–7 July right · GFS IC: 28 Jun 2026 00 UTC
Temperature — Extreme Heat Northwest India Persists 28 June–2 July; Broad Cooling as Depression Sweeps Central India 3–7 July
The 28 June–2 July anomaly (bottom-left) still shows 10–16°C above Long Term Mean over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana — the pre-monsoon heat pocket now pushed into the extreme northwest. By 3–7 July, the Depression's cloud cover and heavy rain drives a sharp cooling across Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with below-normal temperatures spreading rapidly northwestward. Western Rajasthan retains some positive anomaly but the extreme heat zone contracts to its smallest extent of the season.
Fig. 4 — Mean Wind at 850 hPa (top) · Wind Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 28 June–2 July left · 3–7 July right · GFS IC: 28 Jun 2026 00 UTC
850 hPa Wind — Two Circulation Centres: Northwest Bay 28 June–2 July, Madhya Pradesh 3–7 July
The 28 June–2 July anomaly (bottom-left) reveals a cyclonic positive anomaly over the Northwest Bay of Bengal — the developing Low Pressure Area's inflow signature — alongside an enhanced low-level jet pushing into Gujarat and Rajasthan above Long Term Mean for the first time this season. By 3–7 July (bottom-right) the cyclonic anomaly has moved inland, now centred over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha with another embedded circulation, while the low-level jet surges strongly northward over the Arabian Sea into Rajasthan and Pakistan. Easterlies feeding the depression from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh complete the classic two-limb circulation of an inland Monsoon Depression.
Fig. 5 — Mean Wind at 200 hPa (top) · Wind Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 28 June–2 July left · 3–7 July right · GFS IC: 28 Jun 2026 00 UTC
200 hPa Wind — Tropical Easterly Jet at Strongest Signal of the Season; Upper Anticyclone Building over India
The Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), the upper-tropospheric easterly current that drives divergence and sustains deep monsoon convection, is now at its strongest anomaly of the season. The 28 June–2 July anomaly (bottom-left) shows a broad positive (enhanced easterly) signal extending from south India across the Bay of Bengal and deep into the tropical Indian Ocean — the Trivandrum–Madagascar corridor is strongly above Long Term Mean. From 3–7 July this intensifies into a near-continental scale positive anomaly, with the upper anticyclone over India building robustly — a textbook signature of a mature, vigorous Monsoon Depression system below it. The subtropical westerly jet has retreated completely poleward over Northwest India, removing all upper-level blocking.
District-level Heavy Rain Alerts — 3–7 July
GFS district-level forecasts flag the following districts for 24-hour very heavy or extremely heavy rainfall. These are model-based guidance values; always refer to the latest India Meteorological Department district warnings for official advisories.
| Date | State | Districts / Region | Alert |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 July | Madhya Pradesh | Sehore, Bhopal, Dewas | VERY HEAVY |
| Maharashtra | Mumbai, Thane, Raigarh | VERY HEAVY | |
| 04 July | Gujarat | Aravalli | EXTREMELY HEAVY |
| Rajasthan | Dungarpur | EXTREMELY HEAVY | |
| Gujarat & Madhya Pradesh | Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar · Jhabua, Ratlam | VERY HEAVY | |
| 07 July | Dadra & Nagar Haveli | Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman | EXTREMELY HEAVY |
| Maharashtra | Palghar, Thane | EXTREMELY HEAVY | |
| Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat | Indore, Dewas, Ratlam · Valsad | VERY HEAVY |
Extremely heavy rain risk 04 July (Gujarat–Rajasthan) and 07 July (Konkan–West Coast): GFS flags Aravalli and Dungarpur for 210–284 mm on 04 July as the Depression passes over northeast Gujarat and south Rajasthan. A second pulse on 07 July targets the North Konkan coast — Dadra & Nagar Haveli (301 mm) and Palghar (264 mm) — as the post-Depression moisture surge hits the Ghats. Flood watch is warranted for rivers in these districts from 3 July onward.
VayuMet Outlook — 28 June to 7 July 2026
28 June–2 July: Active monsoon continues over the West Coast, Konkan, Northeast India and Sub-Himalayan Bengal. Interior India and Gujarat see near-normal rainfall with isolated heavy spells. Heat persists over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana — extreme anomalies of 10–16°C above normal. Monsoon advances rapidly into remaining Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar during this window consistent with IMD's 3–4 day forecast.
3–7 July — Major Active Phase: The Low Pressure Area over the Northwest Bay concentrates into the season's first Monsoon Depression around 04–05 July and tracks west-northwestward toward Madhya Pradesh, following the classic depression track along the monsoon trough. The impact is multi-layered: the Depression itself brings extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha; its inflow draws easterlies from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, producing heavy rain across the Gangetic plains; the simultaneously surging low-level jet delivers very heavy to extremely heavy rain over the North Konkan and South Gujarat coast; and Uttarakhand receives heavy orographic rain from the moistened flow along the Himalayan foothills. The Tropical Easterly Jet at upper levels is at its most intense so far this season, confirming the full-depth dynamical coherence of this active phase. Monsoon is expected to cover most of the country — including Rajasthan — by 05 July, with only extreme Northwest India (west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana) remaining outside the onset line.
Watch for 01–02 July reassessment: (1) Depression formation: if the system deepens beyond a Depression to a Deep Depression by 03 July, rainfall intensities over Chhattisgarh and Odisha would escalate significantly. (2) Track deviation: any northward wobble in the Depression track would shift the heaviest rain zone toward north Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand. (3) Low-level jet: monitor 850 hPa westerly speed along the Gujarat–Rajasthan corridor — sustained above-normal jet confirms the Rajasthan onset is locked in. (4) Tropical Easterly Jet further intensification into July would signal the continuation of an extended active phase through the second week.
⚠ Disclaimer
VayuMet's analysis is based on NOAA GFS model output and represents independent meteorological assessment. District rain values are model guidance only. Before taking any decision — particularly for flood preparedness, agriculture or travel — always consult your national meteorological broadcaster for authoritative warnings