Gangetic Plains on Fire: Severe Heat Wave 22–29 May — Relief Storms Due 30 May
A powerful, stubborn heat wave has settled over the entire Gangetic belt — from Punjab in the west all the way to Bihar in the east. Temperatures are running 6 to 9°C above normal across hundreds of districts. The worst is not over yet: 29 May is expected to be the peak day, with Fazilka (Punjab) forecast to touch 48.7°C. A much-needed thunderstorm break is then expected to sweep across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and UP on 30 May — bringing dramatic, if short-lived, relief.
🌡 Peak Heat Alert — 29 May 2026: Fazilka and Firozpur districts in Punjab are forecast to record temperatures of 48.7°C and 48.65°C respectively — nearly 9°C above the normal for late May. Extreme heat wave conditions are expected across all of Punjab, all of Haryana, and all of Delhi on this day.
Fazilka, Punjab
29 May
Normal Tmax
(Extreme HW)
Gangetic Plains
Under Watch
Break Expected
Punjab–UP
📋 Forecast Reliability Disclaimer: Weather forecasts from numerical models like NOAA GFS become progressively less reliable beyond 2–3 days. Forecasts for Day 1–2 (22–23 May) are highly reliable. Day 3–5 forecasts (24–26 May) carry moderate uncertainty — the broad picture is likely correct but specific temperatures and rainfall amounts may shift by ±2–3°C or ±20–30%. Forecasts for Day 6–10 (27 May onward), including the 30 May thunderstorm break, indicate a probable scenario based on current model trends — but the exact timing, intensity and district-level specifics can change significantly as the event approaches. Always check for updated forecasts closer to the date. This article will not be updated in real time. For the latest picture, use the VayuMet live map or the IMD official website.
What Is Happening and Why
Every year, May is India's hottest month before the monsoon arrives to cool things down. But this year, a strong and persistent high-pressure system over northwest India is blocking any moisture or cloud cover from reaching the Gangetic Plains. This "heat dome" — as weather scientists call it — is trapping hot, dry air near the ground and allowing the land surface to heat up like a griddle every afternoon.
The result is temperatures that are 6 to 9 degrees Celsius higher than what is typical for this time of year. When the temperature is already naturally around 40–42°C in late May, an extra 7–8°C pushes it dangerously past the 47–48°C mark — a threshold that poses serious health risks and damages standing crops.
State-by-State Picture: 22–29 May
The table below shows how the heat wave has evolved across each Gangetic Plains state. FWS means Fairly Widespread — more than half the state's districts are affected. Scattered means 25–50% of districts. Isolated means under 25%.
| Date | Punjab | Haryana | Delhi | Uttar Pradesh | Bihar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May | FWS (65%) | Isolated | — | FWS (59%) | FWS (82%) |
| 23 May | Isolated | Isolated | — | FWS (59%) | FWS (89%) |
| 24 May | Scattered | Isolated | — | FWS (73%) | FWS (71%) |
| 25 May | FWS (96%) | FWS (64%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (92%) | Scattered |
| 26 May | FWS (87%) | Scattered | FWS (91%) | FWS (96%) | Scattered |
| 27 May | FWS (100%) | FWS (77%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (89%) | Scattered |
| 28 May | FWS (100%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (80%) | Isolated |
| 29 May ⚠ Peak | FWS (100%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (100%) | FWS (71%) | — |
| 30 May ⛈ Break | FWS rain begins | FWS rain (59%) | FWS rain (100%) | FWS rain (53%) | FWS rain (100%) |
The Hottest Districts: Where Is It Worst?
The very hottest districts shift gradually westward through the period. In the first few days it is eastern UP and Bihar that are burning. By 25 May, Punjab emerges as the new core of the heat wave and stays that way right through to the break.
Peak Temperatures — 29 May (Forecast Peak Day)
Peak Temperatures — 22–28 May (Earlier Days)
Bihar: Pre-Monsoon Showers Already Arriving
While Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and most of UP are baking under the heat dome, Bihar is already getting some early relief — not from any system moving west, but from the early advance of pre-monsoon moisture from the Bay of Bengal. Scattered thundershowers have been occurring each day in northeastern Bihar since 24 May.
Districts like Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria, Madhubani, Madhepura and Supaul are receiving 10–50 mm of rainfall on individual days, mostly in the form of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This is why Bihar's heat wave coverage has been dropping — from affecting nearly 9 in 10 districts on 22–23 May, down to scattered coverage by 26–27 May, and then no heat wave alerts at all by 29 May.
By 30 May, every single one of Bihar's 38 districts in this analysis will have received rain. The pre-monsoon season is already knocking on Bihar's door.
Dust Storms and Gale Winds: North Rajasthan
It is not just the heat. Across North Rajasthan, strong dry winds are creating dust storm conditions each afternoon and evening. These are not thunderstorm winds — they are driven by large pressure differences near the surface in the desert, pushing sand and dust across the landscape.
Districts like Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Bikaner, Nagaur, Ajmer and Bhilwara have been seeing peak gusts of 60–76 km/h almost every day. On 29 May, Jaisalmer is forecast to record a peak gust of 76 km/h — strong enough to reduce visibility to near zero in blowing dust, knock over lightweight structures, and make road travel hazardous.
⚠ For those in North Rajasthan: Afternoon and evening dust storms are expected to continue daily until 30–31 May. Tie down loose items, keep vehicles away from open areas during peak afternoon hours (3–7 pm local time), and carry water — the combination of heat and dust is particularly dehydrating.
The Relief: Thunderstorms Hit 30 May
The break everyone has been waiting for arrives on 30 May. A combination of moisture from the Bay of Bengal moving northwestward, and a western disturbance bringing energy from the west, will trigger a large line of severe thunderstorms sweeping across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and UP through the afternoon and evening.
This is not gentle drizzle. The thunderstorms will be intense and convective — meaning they develop rapidly, bring sudden heavy downpours, and are accompanied by powerful gusty winds. The data captures this vividly:
Peak Convective Gusts — 30 May (Thunderstorm Break)
Rain coverage on 30 May tells the full story of the turnaround:
- Delhi — rain across all districts (Fairly Widespread, 100% area coverage). Temperatures, which had been at 100% heat wave coverage for days, finally start to ease.
- Haryana — Fairly Widespread rain (59% area). Heat wave coverage drops from 100% to 64%.
- Punjab — Scattered rain arrives (35% area), led by a violent thunderstorm over Gurdaspur. Peak temperature drops from 48.7°C on 29 May to 47.5°C — still hot, but a meaningful step down.
- Uttar Pradesh — Fairly Widespread rain (53% of districts), particularly in eastern and central UP. Districts like Shrawasti (55.9 mm), Balrampur (54.5 mm) and Gonda (33.3 mm) see the heaviest rainfall.
- Bihar — Complete and total relief. Every district in Bihar records rain — 100% coverage. The pre-monsoon rains reach full intensity across the state.
⚠ Important: While the rain brings relief from the heat, the thunderstorms themselves are dangerous. Peak gusts of 90–95 km/h can uproot trees, damage buildings, and knock down power lines. If you are in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi or UP on the evening of 30 May, stay indoors when the storm arrives, keep away from trees and open areas, and expect brief power outages.
What to Expect After 30 May
By 31 May, the situation changes dramatically. Delhi sees no heat wave at all and continues receiving rain across all its districts. UP also loses its heat wave and gets widespread rain (67% coverage). Haryana drops to isolated heat wave conditions (only 5% of districts) with some rain in parts.
Punjab retains some heat in its southern districts — scattered heat wave conditions (around 39% coverage) — as the thunderstorm line is not uniform across the entire state. The extreme temperature spike of 48–49°C is firmly behind us by 31 May.
North Rajasthan continues to see gusty conditions on 31 May (Jhunjhunun and Churu 64 km/h, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur ~60 km/h), though the intensity of the dust storms is beginning to ease.
Simple Precautions for the Next Week
- Avoid being outside between 11 am and 5 pm on 22–29 May if you are in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi or UP — this is when temperatures peak and heat stroke risk is highest.
- Drink water regularly, even if you don't feel thirsty. Dehydration happens faster than people realise at these temperatures.
- Check on elderly neighbours and young children — they are most vulnerable to heat-related illness.
- Farmers — avoid working in fields during peak afternoon hours. If crops can be irrigated, do so in the early morning or late evening.
- On 30 May evening — when the thunderstorms arrive, stay indoors. The storms bring relief, but the gusts are severe. Do not stand under trees or near power lines.
- North Rajasthan travellers — plan inter-city travel for early morning (before 10 am) to avoid peak dust storm hours (3–8 pm).
🌧 Track the Break Live: Use the VayuMet map to watch the thunderstorm system arrive on 30 May in real time. Activate the Precipitation layer and step through the afternoon forecast frames to see when the rain line reaches your district. Switch on the Wind animation to track the gust front. The Alerts layer shows the day-by-day colour coding for your district.
Data source: NOAA GFS forecast model processed by VayuMet. Forecast run initialised 22 May 2026 00Z. Temperatures are 2 m forecast Tmax values. Heat wave classification follows IMD criteria: departure ≥ +4.5°C above normal = Watch; ≥ +4.5°C with Tmax ≥ 40°C = Warning; ≥ +6.5°C with Tmax ≥ 40°C = Severe; ≥ +8.5°C with Tmax ≥ 40°C = Extreme. Area coverage uses standard IMD terminology: Isolated < 25%, Scattered 25–50%, Fairly Widespread (FWS) > 50%.
Track Live on VayuMet Maps →