Where the season stands
Latest update · 25 September 2026The Long Goodbye: A Fading Bay System Saves Its Worst for Uttar Pradesh
The monsoon year at a glance
India has two monsoons. The southwest monsoon (June to September) brings roughly three-quarters of the country's annual rainfall. The northeast monsoon (October to December) matters most for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. The dates below are the India Meteorological Department (IMD) normals; any single year can run a week or more early or late.
| Normal date | Milestone |
|---|---|
| 1 June | Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala |
| 8 July | Monsoon covers the entire country |
| 17 September | Withdrawal begins from northwest India |
| 15 October | Withdrawal from the whole country complete; northeast monsoon rains set in over the southern peninsula |
| 31 December | Northeast monsoon season ends |
Seasonal totals are judged against the Long Period Average (LPA) — about 87 cm for the all-India June–September season, based on 1971–2020. IMD calls a season normal at 96–104% of the LPA, below normal at 90–96%, deficient under 90%, above normal at 104–110% and excess above 110%.
What makes a good or poor season
- The Pacific and Indian Oceans. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tilt the odds for the season as a whole; they do not decide it. A strong El Niño year can still produce a normal month, as July 2026 showed.
- Active and break spells. Within the season, rainfall comes in pulses. When the monsoon trough sits across central India, rain is widespread; when it shifts north to the Himalayan foothills, central and peninsular India dry out in a break.
- Low pressure systems. Low Pressure Areas and depressions from the Bay of Bengal carry much of the heavy rain inland along the monsoon trough.
- The large-scale circulation. The Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet, the Tropical Easterly Jet and the Tibetan Anticyclone set how strongly moisture is fed in and lifted — the components the VayuMet Indian Monsoon Index (VIMI) tracks.
Track it on VayuMet
Start with these
Background and case studies that stay useful after the season they describe.
- AnalysisThirteen Percent Down, a Hundred Stories Up: Monsoon 2026's Patchwork of Extremes
- VerificationA Super El Niño and a Normal July — Forecast Failure, or a Monitoring Gap?
- AnalysisThe Valsad Trough Is Back — Monsoon Depression Tracks Westward Toward Gujarat; Same Offshore Zone That Delivered India's Third-Highest Daily Rainfall Now Under Watch
- AnalysisIndia Southwest Monsoon 2026 – State-by-State Onset Dates & Forecast
All monsoon articles
Thirteen Percent Down, a Hundred Stories Up: Monsoon 2026's Patchwork of Extremes
The southwest monsoon ended 13% below normal — a tidy national number that almost no one actually experienced. Resolve the same season to 724 districts and it runs from −91% to +104%, with 14 states holding both a drought-grade district and a flood-grade one. Uttar Pradesh finished +8% overall while containing both. Here are the two maps, and the four-act story of how a disastrous June turned into a merely disappointing season.
The Long Goodbye: A Fading Bay System Saves Its Worst for Uttar Pradesh
The Bay of Bengal system is 700 km inland and filling fast — Deep Depression over Chhattisgarh this morning, a spent low over Sitapur by 29 September. But the animation shows the trap: the rain band outruns the centre and swings onto Uttar Pradesh and the Himalayan foothills, where Very Heavy Rain and convective gusts of 80–90 km/h land on 25 and 26 September.
Rise and Fall of a Giant: A Bay of Bengal Depression in Motion
A Deep Depression sits off the north Andhra coast at 984 hPa this morning. Six frames from the VayuMet map, stitched into one animation, follow it west-northwest across Telangana and Vidarbha until it unwinds into a shallow low over Madhya Pradesh by 28 September. The dangerous days are 24 and 25 September, when Extremely Heavy Rain warnings fire across Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Vidarbha and gusts touch 84 km/h.
Monsoon Exit Meets Resistance: Bay Storm Targets Andhra Coast by 25 September
IMD expects Southwest Monsoon withdrawal to commence from southwest Rajasthan on 19 September, and the VayuMet model agrees — pressure rising, ten straight days without a single rain alert. But the same run spins up a tropical system over the Andaman Sea around 20 September that tracks west-northwest toward the north Andhra–south Odisha coast, with landfall expected by 25 September and Extremely Heavy Rain driving inland over Bastar.
Out With the Monsoon, In With a Storm — A Bay of Bengal Low Brews Near 20 September
Pressure is rising and the monsoon trough is weakening over the northwest — classic Southwest Monsoon withdrawal precursors. Meanwhile a low-level circulation is organising near the Andaman Islands, with gusts near 79 km/h and a closed low developing over the Bay of Bengal by 18–22 September. Plus what's shaping up favourably for the Northeast Monsoon.
It Feels Like 46°C — A Muggy Heatwave Grips Punjab, Haryana and North Rajasthan Mid-Monsoon
Real-feel temperatures reach 45.8°C in Yamunanagar (Haryana) and 45.6°C in Gurdaspur (Punjab) as monsoon humidity stacks on top of a likely heatwave — bone-dry and blistering in the west, thick and suffocating in the east. The actual monsoon trough and rain sit far away over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and the Northeast, leaving the northwest hot, humid, and dry of rain alerts entirely.
RED Alert Over Ujjain Today — Then the Monsoon Trough Swings North Into a Foothills and Northeast India Deluge
Madhya Pradesh's Ujjain district is under a RED alert for Extremely Heavy Rain today, the peak of a rain band that already dropped Heavy Rain on Mizoram (06 Aug) and Delhi-NCR/Haryana (08 Aug). The model shows this fading by 12 Aug, but the trough re-forms firmly along the Himalayan foothills by 15–19 Aug, driving Heavy to locally Very Heavy Rain (peaks up to 164 mm) over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and north Bengal, with Bihar joining late.
A Super El Niño and a Normal July — Forecast Failure, or a Monitoring Gap?
IMD forecast July at 94% of LPA; it verified at 101–104%, and the season is tracking 88% against a 90% call. So the forecast is not broken — but July was decided on a nine-day timescale by monsoon lows, and no ENSO index can speak to that. Why this is a monitoring problem, not a forecasting one.
Rainfall Axis Marches East as Gujarat's Depression Week Ends; UP–Bihar Plains in the Firing Line 02–04 Aug; Bay of Bengal Watch for 06–10 Aug
After the 29–31 July depression drenched Gujarat, the monsoon trough is pivoting rapidly east. Bihar and eastern UP face Extremely Heavy Rain on 02 Aug, central UP plains on 03–04 Aug. A new Bay of Bengal disturbance is worth watching for the second week of August.
The Valsad Trough Is Back — Monsoon Depression Tracks Westward Toward Gujarat; Same Offshore Zone That Delivered India's Third-Highest Daily Rainfall Now Under Watch
A well-marked depression (~994 hPa) over South Chhattisgarh at 29 Jul 1800 UTC is tracking westward toward the Gujarat coast. The P24P24 tendency shows pressure already falling −4 to −6 hPa over Gujarat and Maharashtra. The offshore trough re-activating off South Gujarat is the same zone that produced the 1,064 mm Valsad event on 22–23 July. Analysis with 4-panel chart and Valsad comparison.
Active Monsoon Low Drives Very Heavy Rain in Gujarat; Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet Surging; Rainfall Axis Shifting Eastward 27–31 July
An active monsoon low over northwest India is pulling a strongly enhanced Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet (+4 to +6 m/s above normal). Gujarat under Very Heavy Rain — The Dangs and Vadodara on 22 July; Banas Kantha and Patan on 23 July. Rainfall axis shifts east from 27 July: UP plains, West Bengal, and Odisha activating. No break monsoon signal through 31 July.
Break Monsoon Ending, Bay Low Develops ~19–20 July; Bihar and Jharkhand Revival Underway; Near-Nationwide Active Monsoon Likely 22–26 July
The break monsoon episode active since 11 July is in its final stage. A low-pressure area is developing over the north Bay of Bengal around 19–20 July, with Very Heavy Rain alerts for Bihar and Jharkhand. Near-nationwide active monsoon is likely 22–26 July as the Gangetic plains and central India revive.
Break Monsoon Conditions Confirmed for 11–15 July, Trough Anchored at Himalayan Foothills; Severe Heat Stress Over Northwest India; Fresh Bay Low Likely 16–20 July
All five VayuMet model diagnostics confirm a break monsoon episode for 11–15 July — trough at the Himalayan foothills, central India dry, northwest India under severe heat (+8 to +14°C above normal). A fresh low-pressure area is likely over the Bay of Bengal 16–20 July, bringing monsoon revival for eastern India.
Break Monsoon Watch Strengthens for 12–16 July as Monsoon Trough Shifts Toward Foothills, Activity Easing over W India, Active Spell Persists Over Northeast India
The 07 July VayuMet model run shows multi-variable confirmation of a break monsoon signal — MSLP trough, precipitation anomaly, 850 hPa wind, Tropical Easterly Jet, and temperature all pointing to a Weak to Break Monsoon episode from around 12 July. Active monsoon persists over Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Very Heavy Rain alerts for MP Malwa plateau (08–09 Jul) and Rajasthan Jhalawar (08–09 Jul).
India Monsoon Update 04 July 2026 — Low-Pressure System Over Odisha Shows Depression-Strength Winds 55–67 km/h, Monsoon Trough Shift Toward Foothills Likely 12–15 July
A well-organised low-pressure system over the Odisha coast shows gust winds of 55–67 km/h — consistent with Depression-strength criteria. IMD declared the Delhi monsoon onset on 02 July, three days ahead of the VayuMet model's first indicated date (05 July); all classical criteria (rain + wind + temperature) align simultaneously only on 07 July. Mumbai, Palghar, Raigarh and Thane face very heavy to extremely heavy rain today. Gujarat coast (Surat, Navsari, Valsad) and Maharashtra Vidarbha active 06–07 July.
India Monsoon 01 July 2026 — Low Pressure Area Active Northwest Bay, Depression Track Odisha–Chhattisgarh 04–06 July, Very Heavy Rain Gujarat Coast and Konkan 05 July
GFS 01 July 00Z confirms the Low Pressure Area is active today. Depression track refined slightly southward — core rainfall targets Odisha and Chhattisgarh 06 July. New detail: Gujarat coast (Narmada, Surat, Bharuch) flagged for very heavy rain 05 July. Rajasthan early signal 03 July. Tropical Easterly Jet at seasonal peak. Monsoon reached most of Central India and Uttarakhand as of 30 June.
India Monsoon 28 June 2026 — Low Pressure Area Northwest Bay 01 July, First Monsoon Depression Expected 04–05 July, Widespread Heavy Rain 03–07 July
GFS 28 June 00Z sharpens the Low Pressure Area signal from the 24 June run into a coherent Monsoon Depression track — NW Bay to Madhya Pradesh by 04–05 July. Extremely heavy rain alerts for Aravalli and Dungarpur on 04 July; Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Palghar on 07 July. Tropical Easterly Jet at strongest anomaly of the season. Monsoon to cover most of India except extreme Northwest by 05 July.
India Monsoon 24 June 2026 — Sub-seasonal Update: Maharashtra Done, Gujarat Entry, Subdued 24-28 June, Low Pressure Area over NW Bay Signal Heavy Rain Episode 29 June-02 July
Monsoon enters remaining Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat on 24 June. West Coast rain remains below Long Term Mean through 28 June — the low-level jet is still short of Gujarat. A Low Pressure Area developing over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around 01–02 July drives easterlies over Bihar–East Uttar Pradesh and a heavy rain episode over Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. New 200 hPa Tropical Easterly Jet analysis added — strengthening Trivandrum–Madagascar corridor is a bullish signal for sustained active monsoon into early July.
India Monsoon 17 June 2026 — Sub-seasonal Update: Arabian Sea Recovers, West Coast Advance Imminent
Arabian Sea anticyclonic disruption is weakening — southwesterly jet reorganising for a West Coast push around 20–22 June. Bay of Bengal remains vigorous. This update adds 2 m temperature and MSLP analysis alongside rainfall and 850 hPa wind, showing monsoon cooling across the declared belt and a deepening trough over northwest India.
India Monsoon 12 June 2026 — Sub-seasonal Outlook: Arabian Sea Stalls, Bay of Bengal Surges
A strong negative wind anomaly and anticyclonic disruption over the Arabian Sea is stalling monsoon's West Coast advance through ~16 June. The Bay of Bengal branch remains vigorous — heavy to extremely heavy rainfall expected over Northeast India, peaking 17–19 June. VayuMet GFS 10-day sub-seasonal analysis with rainfall and 850 hPa wind anomaly maps vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean.
India Monsoon 2026 – June Update: IMD Declares Onset 4 June, Season Forecast Revised
IMD officially declared Kerala monsoon onset on 4 June — nine days after its April forecast of 26 May. Widespread heavy rainfall (Thiruvananthapuram 63 mm, Alappuzha 59 mm) confirmed all three onset criteria. CFSv2 JJAS May vs June Initial Conditions comparison shows a near-universal downgrade across South Peninsular, Central, and East & NE India for the full season, with NW hills the only exception.
Southwest Monsoon 2026: On the Threshold — A Comprehensive Multi-Model Assessment
IMD forecasts 92% of LPA — India's first below-normal monsoon since 2023. El Niño developing with 82–98% probability across all major agencies. VayuMet CFSv2 analysis reveals severe deficits across northwest and central India Jun–Aug; September outlook carries the widest uncertainty at this lead time. Comparative assessment of IMD, ECMWF SEAS5, NOAA/CPC, WMO/SASCOF-34, JMA and UK Met Office.
India Southwest Monsoon 2026 – State-by-State Onset Dates & Forecast
When will the monsoon arrive in your state? Historical onset climatology compared against the 2026 CFSv2 seasonal outlook, with a state-by-state onset date table and tips for tracking on VayuMet.