RED Alert Over Ujjain Today — Then the Monsoon Trough Swings North Into a Foothills and Northeast India Deluge

Madhya Pradesh's Ujjain district is under a RED alert for Extremely Heavy Rain today, 10 August — the peak of a rain band that has been building for four days, with neighbouring Shajapur also flagged RED and Ratlam under an Orange Very Heavy Rain alert. IMD's observed rainfall already shows Widespread Heavy Rain over Mizoram on 06 August (up to 105 mm) and an unusually sharp Heavy Rain event over Delhi-NCR and Haryana on 08 August (up to 105 mm in Charki Dadri), before the moisture organised over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on 09 August and intensified into today's RED alert. The VayuMet model (GFS IC 10 Aug 00 UTC) shows this Madhya Pradesh system fading by 12 August, but not into silence — the monsoon trough is already swinging north, and by 15–19 August it re-forms firmly against the Himalayan foothills, driving Heavy to locally Very Heavy Rain (point totals up to 164 mm) across Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and the West Bengal Dooars, with Bihar activating late in the window while central India stays dry.

What Already Happened — Actual Rainfall 06–09 August (IMD Observed)

Before looking at the forecast, it's worth recording what has already verified on the ground. The figures below are VayuMet's district-level read of IMD's real-time gridded rainfall analysis (0.25°) — actual observed rainfall, not a model forecast.

• 06 August — Mizoram: Widespread Heavy Rain across the state's southern districts — Lawngtlai (105 mm), Saiha (105 mm), Hnahthial (98 mm), Lunglei (93 mm), and Serchhip (81 mm) all crossed the Heavy Rain threshold (64.5–115.5 mm/24h).
• 08 August — Delhi-NCR and Haryana: A sharp, largely unforecast urban rain event. Charki Dadri (105 mm), Jhajjar (97 mm), South Delhi (94 mm), South East Delhi (89 mm), South West Delhi (88 mm), Rohtak (88 mm), and Gurugram (87 mm) all recorded Heavy Rain — one of the more intense single-day totals over the capital region this monsoon.
• 09 August — Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh: The system that peaks today was already visible — Mandla (66 mm), Bametara (64 mm), Dindori (59 mm), Balaghat (58 mm), and Kabeerdham (58 mm) all approached or crossed the Heavy Rain mark, setting up today's escalation to RED over Ujjain and Shajapur.

Mean Sea Level Pressure and anomaly vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2 LTM · GFS IC 10 Aug 2026 00 UTC · Left: 10–14 Aug · Right: 15–19 Aug

A Weak Trough Over the Plains, a Deep Low Building Over the Himalayan Arc

The Day 1–5 chart shows a shallow trough over central India — just enough to have supported today's Madhya Pradesh rain band — while a persistent negative MSLP anomaly (−4 to −9 hPa) sits along the Himalayan/Tibetan arc rather than the Gangetic plains. Central India carries a slight positive anomaly, meaning the trough is already weaker than the long-term mean even as it produces today's RED alert. By Day 6–10, that Himalayan-arc low deepens further and expands south, while central India's positive anomaly persists — the pressure field of a trough abandoning the plains for the foothills.

Cumulated Rainfall (mm) and anomaly vs 1991–2020 LTM · GFS IC 10 Aug 2026 00 UTC · Left: 10–14 Aug · Right: 15–19 Aug

Madhya Pradesh's Rain Blob Fades, a Foothills Belt Takes Over

Day 1–5 shows a sharply defined rainfall maximum (150+ mm, +64 to +96 mm anomaly) centred almost exactly over Ujjain district — today's RED alert in numbers. By Day 6–10, that Madhya Pradesh signal is gone entirely, and a continuous, intense band (anomalies exceeding +96 mm) has taken shape from the Nepal border through north Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and into Bangladesh. Central and peninsular India stay flat to slightly below normal throughout — this is a relocation of the rainfall, not an expansion of it. Our district alerts classify on the district-wide average, which reads Heavy Rain (Yellow) across this belt — but the underlying grid shows local peaks within Alipurduar, Kokrajhar, Dhubri, and West Garo Hills reaching 130–164 mm around 16–17 August, which is Very Heavy Rain intensity at the point level.

Mean 850 hPa Wind (m/s) and speed anomaly vs 1991–2020 LTM · GFS IC 10 Aug 2026 00 UTC · Left: 10–14 Aug · Right: 15–19 Aug

Low-Level Flow Intensifies Over Land, the Coastal LLJ Loses Its Edge

Day 1–5 shows a modest positive speed anomaly (+2 to +5 m/s) across central India and the Bay, consistent with the moisture feed behind today's Madhya Pradesh rain. By Day 6–10, that anomaly explodes into a broad +5 to +7 m/s band covering nearly the entire Indo-Gangetic Plain and central India, while the Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet (LLJ) along the west coast actually weakens (negative anomaly). The moisture transport is intensifying, but it's being redirected inland toward the foothills rather than sustaining the coastal jet.

Heavy Rain Alert Districts — 10–13 August 2026 (Model Guidance)

Date	State	Key Districts	Alert Level
10 Aug	Madhya Pradesh	Ujjain, Shajapur	Extremely Heavy
10 Aug	Madhya Pradesh	Ratlam	Very Heavy
10 Aug	Rajasthan	Pratapgarh	Very Heavy
10 Aug	Madhya Pradesh	Agar Malwa, Sehore	Heavy
10 Aug	Rajasthan	Banswara, Dungarpur	Heavy
10 Aug	Chhattisgarh	Janjgir-Champa	Heavy
11 Aug	Madhya Pradesh	Mandsaur	Very Heavy
11 Aug	Rajasthan	Jhalawar	Very Heavy
11 Aug	Arunachal Pradesh	Tirap	Very Heavy
11 Aug	Madhya Pradesh	Neemuch	Heavy
11 Aug	Rajasthan	Baran	Heavy
11 Aug	Arunachal Pradesh	Longding	Heavy
13 Aug	Mizoram	Kolasib	Heavy

Model guidance only — verify against latest IMD district bulletins.

VayuMet Outlook — 10–19 August 2026

10–14 August — Madhya Pradesh Peaks Today, the Trough Swings North

• Madhya Pradesh (10 Aug, today): Ujjain district is RED for Extremely Heavy Rain, with neighbouring Shajapur also RED and Ratlam ORANGE for Very Heavy Rain. This is the peak intensity of the rain band that began building over Mizoram on 06 Aug and crossed Delhi-NCR/Haryana on 08 Aug.
• Rajasthan (10–11 Aug): Pratapgarh ORANGE today; Jhalawar ORANGE on 11 Aug as the same system drifts northwest along the MP-Rajasthan border. Banswara and Dungarpur carry Heavy Rain today.
• Arunachal Pradesh (11 Aug): Tirap ORANGE, Longding Heavy Rain — the first clear sign the trough is already re-organising over the foothills, well ahead of the main Northeast India event.
• 12 August: The one genuinely quiet day of the run — Orange/Red counts drop to zero nationwide and district-mean Yellow alerts disappear too, as the Madhya Pradesh system exits and the foothills system hasn't yet consolidated.
• 13–14 August: Not silence — the build-up resumes immediately. Aizawl (Mizoram, peak 113 mm), Bankura (West Bengal, 78 mm), Bhagalpur (Bihar, 66 mm), and Dhubri (Assam, 68 mm) all see meaningful point rainfall, and Arunachal Pradesh (Lohit, Pakke Kessang), West Bengal (Kalimpong), and the UP Terai (Bareilly, Pilibhit, Rampur) cross into district-mean Heavy Rain by 14 Aug — the leading edge of the bigger event.

15–19 August — Monsoon Trough Re-Forms Over the Foothills, East and Northeast India

This is the main event of the run. The monsoon trough abandons the plains and re-forms against the Himalayan foothills, and the rainfall response is sustained and intensifying, not a brief flare-up.

• 16–17 August — the peak: District-mean values reach Yellow (Heavy Rain) across the belt, but local peaks within these districts push into Very Heavy Rain territory: Alipurduar (West Bengal) 164 mm, Kokrajhar (Assam) 150 mm, Dhubri (Assam) 149 mm, South Salmara Mancachar (Assam) 149 mm, West Garo Hills (Meghalaya) 136 mm, Chirang (Assam) 133 mm, and Gomati (Tripura) 128 mm. This is the sharpest rainfall signal anywhere in the 10-day run.
• Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura: The widest footprint of the run — Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Chirang, Goalpara, Bajali, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Nalbari, and South Salmara Mancachar (Assam); East/West Jaintia Hills, North/West Garo Hills, South West Garo Hills (Meghalaya); Gomati and Sipahijala (Tripura) all carry Heavy Rain, several with Very Heavy Rain peaks as above.
• North Bengal (the Dooars): Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjiling, and Kalimpong flagged Heavy Rain from 16 Aug, with Alipurduar's peak the single highest value in this run.
• Uttar Pradesh Terai: Bareilly, Pilibhit, and Rampur carry Heavy Rain from 14 Aug, with Mau and Gorakhpur joining by 18–19 Aug.
• Bihar joins late: Nawada crosses into Yellow (Heavy Rain) by 19 Aug with a peak of 104 mm; Sheikhpura, Patna, Jehanabad, and Nalanda are close behind. Bihar is the last state to activate in this run, trailing the Assam/Bengal peak by two to three days.
• Himachal Pradesh: Una, Bilaspur, and Solan appear on the Heavy Rain list across 17–19 Aug — the western end of the foothills belt activating.
• No point value in this run crosses the Extremely Heavy Rain threshold (≥ 204.5 mm) — the peak is 164 mm at Alipurduar. Confidence in exact intensity and district footprint will sharpen as the event nears; central and peninsular India stay free of rain alerts throughout.

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