Monsoon Update 04 July 2026 — Low-Pressure System Over Odisha Shows Depression-Strength Winds (55–67 km/h), Monsoon Trough Shift Toward Foothills Likely 12–15 July

A well-organised low-pressure system has developed over the Odisha coast, with the VayuMet model showing gust winds of 55–67 km/h in Odisha and coastal Maharashtra districts — broadly consistent with Depression-strength criteria (India Meteorological Department classification: sustained surface winds 52–61 km/h). IMD has not issued a formal Depression declaration as of this analysis. IMD declared the monsoon onset over Delhi on 02 July 2026. The heavy rain focus for 04–08 July is firmly on the Mumbai–Konkan coast and Gujarat coast, with the Gangetic plains episode following in the 09–13 July period. Notably, this run shows the monsoon trough beginning to shift toward the Himalayan foothills by 12–15 July — a signal to watch for possible weak or break monsoon conditions over central India thereafter.

India Meteorological Department Monsoon Status — 04 July 2026

Delhi onset declared: IMD declared the onset of the southwest monsoon over Delhi on 02 July 2026 — two days after the monsoon covered most of Uttar Pradesh and five days after the 27 June normal date.

Monsoon has reached: All of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi NCR, most of Punjab and Haryana, eastern and central Rajasthan.

Monsoon yet to reach: Western Rajasthan, most of Jammu & Kashmir interior. The low-pressure system's trough is expected to push the monsoon into western Rajasthan over the next 5–7 days.

Chart Analysis — VayuMet Model 04 July 2026 00Z

VayuMet Model · Mean Sea Level Pressure · 04–08 July (left) and 09–13 July (right) · Contours at 2 hPa · Anomaly vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2

Mean Sea Level Pressure

The 04–08 July period shows a closed low near 994–996 hPa over the Odisha coast with a strong negative anomaly of −8 to −11 hPa — the low-pressure system that has been organising over the northwest Bay of Bengal. By 09–13 July, the trough has shifted northwest and now extends into Punjab, Haryana, and the Delhi region, with a −6 to −8 hPa anomaly over the Gangetic plains, indicating a northward shift of the monsoon trough. This trough configuration is the mechanism for both the Gujarat coast rainfall on 07 July and the active Gangetic plains spell in the second period.

VayuMet Model · 5-day Cumulative Rainfall and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 04–08 July (left) and 09–13 July (right)

Precipitation

The 04–08 July panel shows the heaviest West Coast signal of the 2026 season — a concentrated very heavy to extremely heavy band along Mumbai–Konkan, driven by the Arabian Sea low-level jet (low-altitude southwesterly wind ribbon) feeding directly into the Ghats. Northeast India (Assam, Meghalaya) also remains active. By 09–13 July the rain belt pivots north: Gujarat coast, Uttar Pradesh, and the Bihar–Gangetic plains receive organised rainfall as the system's remnant trough deepens into northwest India. However, the most significant signal to watch in the 09–13 July anomaly panel is a northward shift of peak rainfall toward the Himalayan foothills — Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal — while central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha) shows a declining or near-normal rainfall signal. This foothill-dominant pattern is the early signature of a monsoon trough retreating northward, and is one of the key indicators to watch for weak or break monsoon conditions over peninsular and central India during 12–15 July.

VayuMet Model · Mean 2 m Temperature and Anomaly vs June Long Term Mean 1991–2020 · 04–08 July (left) and 09–13 July (right)

2 m Temperature

Despite the Delhi monsoon onset declaration on 02 July, northwest India — Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan — shows a very strong positive temperature anomaly of +8 to +13°C for 04–08 July. Maximum temperatures in Delhi are modelled at 40–42°C through 06 July, explaining why the classical onset criteria are not simultaneously met until 07 July in this run. By 09–13 July the anomaly collapses over Delhi and northwest India as the monsoon circulation fully establishes, with temperatures dropping toward 32–35°C.

VayuMet Model · Mean 850 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 04–08 July (left) and 09–13 July (right)

850 hPa Wind

The 04–08 July period shows a well-defined cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km altitude) centred over the Odisha coast — the low-level vortex of the developing system — alongside the Arabian Sea low-level jet running at +6 to +9 m/s above the Long Term Mean, the strongest of the 2026 season. This jet is the direct cause of the extreme West Coast rainfall. By 09–13 July the cyclonic anomaly shifts north-northwest and the flow over Delhi turns southwesterly. Critically, the 09–13 July panel shows the monsoon trough circulation beginning to orient along the Himalayan foothills rather than across the central Indian plains — a configuration that, if it persists into 12–15 July, would suppress rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Marathwada, marking the onset of a break or weak monsoon phase over central and peninsular India.

VayuMet Model · Mean 200 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 04–08 July (left) and 09–13 July (right)

200 hPa Wind

The upper-level pattern shows the Tibetan High (upper anticyclone) well-established over the Indian subcontinent in both periods. The Tropical Easterly Jet — the upper-level easterly flow stream that drives divergence aloft and intensifies surface systems — is active over southern India and the Bay of Bengal in 04–08 July, providing the outflow aloft that supports the low-pressure system below. The pattern becomes more zonal by 09–13 July, reflecting a settled, broad monsoon circulation rather than a compact surface system.

District Very Heavy Rain Alerts — Model Guidance

Districts flagged for Very Heavy Rain (115–204 mm per 24 hours) or Extremely Heavy Rain (≥ 204 mm per 24 hours). Model guidance only — verify against latest IMD district warnings.

Date	State	Districts / Region	Alert
04 July	Maharashtra	Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Palghar, Raigarh, Thane	VERY HEAVY
	Odisha	Khordha, Nayagarh, Puri, Balangir	VERY HEAVY
05 July	Maharashtra	Raigarh	EXTREMELY HEAVY
	Maharashtra	Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Palghar, Thane	VERY HEAVY
	Gujarat / Dadra & Nagar Haveli	Valsad, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Chhattisgarh — Dhamtari	VERY HEAVY
06 July	Maharashtra	Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Raigarh, Thane, Akola, Dhule, Jalgaon	VERY HEAVY
	Gujarat / Dadra & Nagar Haveli	Valsad, Daman	VERY HEAVY
07 July	Gujarat	Surat, Navsari, Valsad	VERY HEAVY

Always check IMD district bulletins for official warnings. Thresholds: Very Heavy ≥115 mm/24 h · Extremely Heavy ≥204 mm/24 h.

VayuMet Outlook — 04–13 July 2026

04–08 July — West Coast and Mumbai–Konkan Dominant

The low-pressure system over the Odisha coast — showing Depression-strength wind gusts of 55–67 km/h — is driving the season's most powerful Arabian Sea low-level jet directly into the Konkan–Ghat belt. Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigarh, and Ratnagiri should expect sustained very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall through 05 July. Raigarh is specifically flagged for extremely heavy rain (>204 mm) on 05 July. Odisha coast (Khordha, Puri, Nayagarh, Balangir) also under very heavy rain today. As the system moves inland over 05–06 July, Maharashtra's Vidarbha region (Akola, Dhule, Jalgaon) picks up heavy rain. Gujarat coast (Surat, Navsari, Valsad) peaks on 07 July as the rain belt transitions northward. Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman see very heavy rain on 05–06 July.

09–13 July — Gangetic Plains Active, Western Rajasthan Advance, Trough Shifting Toward Foothills

By 09–13 July the monsoon trough has shifted firmly into northwest India. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and the broader Gangetic plains experience a significant active spell, with the system's remnant trough channelling Bay of Bengal moisture westward across the plains. Rajasthan's western districts begin to see organised rainfall for the first time this season as the monsoon finally reaches the Thar Desert margins. The West Coast spell moderates but does not end — the Arabian Sea low-level jet remains above the Long Term Mean. Northwest India, including Delhi, transitions to established monsoon conditions with temperatures 6–8°C below the recent peak.

Watch — Possible Weak or Break Monsoon After 14 July

A feature emerging in this run that warrants close monitoring: both the precipitation and 850 hPa wind anomaly fields for 09–13 July show the monsoon trough drifting northward toward the Himalayan foothills — Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal receiving the dominant rainfall signal — while central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha) turns drier. This northward trough displacement is the textbook precursor to a break monsoon episode, characterised by heavy rain confined to the foothills and northeast while peninsular and central India experience suppressed, below-normal rainfall. If the trough remains anchored near the foothills through 12–15 July, a break or weak monsoon phase for central and peninsular India is likely in the third week of July. The next model run (07 July) will be critical to assess whether this is a transient trough excursion or the beginning of an extended break.

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