Madhya Pradesh is among India's most El Niño-sensitive states. Central India — the core monsoon zone — bears the greatest suppression signal during El Niño years. IMD's 2026 forecast of 92% of LPA nationally disproportionately affects MP, with elevated risk of drought in western and northern districts.
| District / City | Day 1–2 (mm) | Day 3–4 (mm) | Day 5–7 (mm) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhopal | 0–5 | 5–15 | 10–30 | Moderate |
| Indore | 0–4 | 3–12 | 8–25 | Moderate |
| Jabalpur | 2–8 | 8–20 | 15–40 | Moderate |
| Gwalior | 0–3 | 2–8 | 5–18 | Low–Moderate |
| Ujjain | 0–3 | 2–10 | 8–22 | Moderate |
| Sagar | 2–8 | 5–18 | 12–35 | Moderate |
| Rewa | 2–10 | 8–22 | 15–40 | Moderate |
| Mandla | 5–15 | 10–28 | 20–50 | Moderate |
Note: Eastern MP (Mandla, Balaghat, Rewa) receives significantly more rainfall than western MP (Gwalior, Shivpuri). GFS performance is generally good over MP's flat Deccan plateau terrain.
Southern MP receives the Bay of Bengal branch first, with onset normally around 15–18 June. Annual rainfall in Balaghat and Mandla can exceed 1,400 mm — among the highest in central India. Despite the expected below-normal national seasonal rainfall, southern MP's orographic terrain and proximity to Bay of Bengal moisture provide some buffer. Onset for 2026 is estimated around 13–15 June.
Bhopal and central MP receive onset around 18–22 June. Normal JJAS rainfall is 900–1,100 mm. The monsoon trough frequently passes over central MP in July–August, driving the most active rainfall periods. El Niño tends to keep the trough northward for shorter durations — 2026 is expected to see increased break monsoon frequency over central MP.
Northern MP (Gwalior, Shivpuri, Datia) is at the semi-arid fringe of the monsoon, receiving 600–700 mm annually. Western MP (Ratlam, Mandsaur) is also drier. These zones carry the highest drought risk under the 2026 below-normal national forecast. Onset is around 22–25 June for Indore and the Malwa plateau, and 25–28 June for Gwalior.
And 16 more districts. For all 52 districts, use the VayuMet interactive map.