Arabian Sea cyclone risk May–June and October–November. Gujarat's coastline is one of India's most cyclone-exposed. Use VayuMet's wind gust and MSLP layers to monitor developing systems. For live rainfall and temperature maps, open VayuMet.
| District / City | Day 1–2 (mm) | Day 3–4 (mm) | Day 5–7 (mm) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmedabad | 0–3 | 2–8 | 5–20 | Moderate |
| Surat | 2–8 | 5–20 | 15–40 | Moderate |
| Vadodara | 1–5 | 3–12 | 8–25 | Moderate |
| Rajkot | 0–3 | 2–10 | 5–20 | Moderate |
| Bhavnagar | 0–3 | 2–8 | 5–18 | Moderate |
| Bhuj (Kutch) | 0–1 | 0–5 | 2–12 | Low |
| Jamnagar | 1–4 | 2–10 | 5–20 | Moderate |
| Valsad | 5–15 | 15–35 | 25–60 | Moderate |
Note: South Gujarat (Valsad, Navsari) and Saurashtra coast receive significantly more monsoon rainfall than interior Gujarat and Kutch. GFS performs well for Gujarat's flat terrain.
2026 National Context: IMD's April 2026 LRF projects below-normal rainfall at 92% of LPA nationally. El Niño is expected to suppress the Arabian Sea branch — Gujarat, which depends almost entirely on the Arabian Sea branch of the SW monsoon, faces elevated drought risk in 2026.
South Gujarat (Surat, Navsari, Valsad) lies at the northern edge of the Konkan coast and receives the most rainfall in the state — 1,200–1,600 mm annually. Onset is normally around 15–20 June. Even in below-normal years, south Gujarat typically receives adequate monsoon rainfall due to its coastal position.
Ahmedabad receives 700–800 mm annually, mostly concentrated in July–August during active monsoon spells. Onset is normally 25–30 June. El Niño years reduce the frequency of active spells — extended dry breaks are common. The 2026 outlook suggests below-normal rainfall for central Gujarat.
Kutch, with its largely flat saline terrain (Rann of Kutch), receives only 300–400 mm annually. The monsoon barely penetrates to this region, arriving in July and retreating by September. El Niño years can push Kutch toward drought — total 2026 JJAS rainfall is forecast below-normal to deficient over most of the district.