For live interactive rainfall and wind maps over Maharashtra, open VayuMet and navigate to the Maharashtra region. The seasonal forecast panel shows district-level CFSv2 precipitation anomaly for June–September 2026.
The table below shows the GFS-based 7-day accumulated rainfall outlook for Maharashtra's major cities and districts, updated from the latest 00Z model run. Values are indicative — for exact district-level maps, use the VayuMet interactive map.
| District / City | Day 1–2 (mm) | Day 3–4 (mm) | Day 5–7 (mm) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai (Suburban) | 2–8 | 5–15 | 10–30 | Moderate |
| Pune | 1–5 | 3–10 | 5–20 | Moderate |
| Nashik | 1–4 | 2–8 | 5–15 | Moderate |
| Nagpur | 0–3 | 2–6 | 3–12 | Low |
| Aurangabad | 0–2 | 1–5 | 3–10 | Low |
| Ratnagiri (Konkan) | 5–15 | 10–25 | 20–50 | Moderate |
| Kolhapur | 3–10 | 5–15 | 10–30 | Moderate |
| Solapur | 0–2 | 1–5 | 2–10 | Low |
Note: GFS rainfall values are raw model output at 0.25° resolution. Orographic enhancement over the Western Ghats and Konkan coast means actual observed rainfall can be 2–4× higher than GFS-indicated values in those areas.
2026 National Outlook: IMD's April 2026 Long-Range Forecast projects below-normal seasonal (JJAS) rainfall at 92% of LPA nationally, with a 35% probability of deficient rainfall. A developing El Niño (98% probability, NOAA/IRI) is the primary suppressing driver. Central India — including most of Maharashtra — is among the most El Niño-sensitive regions. Onset is expected ~4 days early following Kerala's IMD-forecast 26 May onset.
The Konkan coast (Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Raigad, Thane, Palghar) receives the full force of the Arabian Sea branch of the southwest monsoon. Normal onset is around 10–12 June for the coast and 10–15 June for Mumbai. With the 2026 Kerala onset forecast at ~26 May (5 days early), the Konkan coast may see onset around 8–10 June. However, El Niño tends to suppress the Arabian Sea branch — total JJAS rainfall for Konkan is expected below-normal in 2026.
Pune lies in the rain shadow of the Western Ghats and receives considerably less monsoon rainfall than the coast (~600–700 mm June–September). El Niño years historically see reduced inland penetration of moisture — 2026 is expected to be below-normal for Pune and interior western Maharashtra. Convective events driven by the monsoon trough position will determine day-to-day rainfall variability.
Vidarbha (Nagpur, Wardha, Amravati, Yavatmal) receives rainfall from the Bay of Bengal branch. Onset is later, typically 15–18 June. Central India, including Vidarbha, is among the most suppressed regions during El Niño years — deficient JJAS rainfall is a significant risk for 2026. Heat wave risk in pre-monsoon (April–May) is elevated over Vidarbha, and the weaker monsoon may prolong heat stress into June.